How USC could remain undefeated and wind up #3
Stupid BCS.
As a computer science guy, one thing I've always had against artificial intelligence is the constant hurdle we face when trying to replicate human thinking on a machine. Logic is easy, but common sense is nearly impossible to express digitally. All the theoretical mathematics in the world coupled with the most brilliantly written software can't replace human rationale. That having been said, can you believe that USC was booted out of the #1 ranking by Texas, thanks to some algorithmic process by the Bowl Championship Series?
I can, and I predicted it. And I'm not saying I like it.
So relying on good 'ol fashioned gray matter, I'd like to postulate how the still-undefeated USC - the two-time defending national champions - might wind up at the end of the season without a loss, and tragically ranked as the third-best team in the country.
USC's remaining schedule is pretty soft. They spent so much time on the road during the season's first half that they're only two remaining away games are at Stanford and at California, and only the latter of which will be even remotely competitive. So they lose out on strength of schedule, putting pressure on them to blow people out big time, because USC can't exactly tout a huge roster of Spurrier-esque 50-point annihilations. They rocked Hawaii and Rice, but haven't been dominant against the rest of the PAC-10, or Notre Dame. Except for USC, the PAC-10 hasn't been a nationally-intimidating conference in years. Pete Carroll's only real legitimate challenge is in the season finale at home against UCLA, who looks good. So there's a little bit of hope, but it doesn't bode well for the Trojans.
Texas has a moderately smooth ride to Pasadena. Their biggest opponets now lie in rubble behind them, having taken out Ohio State and Texas Tech, so they're looking ahead to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State (they don't play Nebraska this year). Mack Brown's Longhorns have their early season blowouts of non-conference and Big XII teams like going for them, so look for them to be #1 if they win out. However, consider the x-factor: the Big XII championship game has displayed a tendency to wreck a team's chances in the BCS poll in recent history. They'll probably face Missouri or Colorado, both of which are good, but will be summarily dispatched. So if all goes according to plan, count on the BCS favoring UT. And here's where it gets interesting.
#3 Virginia Tech, in terms of strength of schedule, has its work cut out for it - and has the most to gain. Should Frank Beamer run the table and finish the season with an unblemished record, the Hokies would have beaten Boston College and Miami - both assumedly ranked in the top 15 at the time they lock-up, and both of whom they play in Blacksburg. I'm also projecting a VT/Florida State ACC championship, to be held at a neutral site, which should make for a great game any way you slice it. VT started the season by obliterating the opposition by an average of 30 points (including a pair of 45-0 shutouts of Duke and Ohio). The only ranked opponent they beat was Georgia Tech (at the time #15), who they handled 51-7. So while they took care of business against lesser teams early, they'll step it up against ranked opponents later on in the season, which the BCS also factors. Were it not for Vince Young in Austin, we'd all be talking about Marcus Vick.
So even though 99.9997% of America's sportswriters (myself included) would have the Trojans face the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl, the BCS, based on its programming model considering schedule strength and margin of victory, may likely rank Texas #1, followed by Virginia Tech and then USC. This would mean, if we did truly have a 1 vs. 2 national championship game - which was the whole damn point of the BCS' inception anyway - we'd see Hokies and 'Horns.
It'll still make for a great game...albeit not the one many of us want to see.
As a computer science guy, one thing I've always had against artificial intelligence is the constant hurdle we face when trying to replicate human thinking on a machine. Logic is easy, but common sense is nearly impossible to express digitally. All the theoretical mathematics in the world coupled with the most brilliantly written software can't replace human rationale. That having been said, can you believe that USC was booted out of the #1 ranking by Texas, thanks to some algorithmic process by the Bowl Championship Series?
I can, and I predicted it. And I'm not saying I like it.
So relying on good 'ol fashioned gray matter, I'd like to postulate how the still-undefeated USC - the two-time defending national champions - might wind up at the end of the season without a loss, and tragically ranked as the third-best team in the country.
USC's remaining schedule is pretty soft. They spent so much time on the road during the season's first half that they're only two remaining away games are at Stanford and at California, and only the latter of which will be even remotely competitive. So they lose out on strength of schedule, putting pressure on them to blow people out big time, because USC can't exactly tout a huge roster of Spurrier-esque 50-point annihilations. They rocked Hawaii and Rice, but haven't been dominant against the rest of the PAC-10, or Notre Dame. Except for USC, the PAC-10 hasn't been a nationally-intimidating conference in years. Pete Carroll's only real legitimate challenge is in the season finale at home against UCLA, who looks good. So there's a little bit of hope, but it doesn't bode well for the Trojans.
Texas has a moderately smooth ride to Pasadena. Their biggest opponets now lie in rubble behind them, having taken out Ohio State and Texas Tech, so they're looking ahead to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State (they don't play Nebraska this year). Mack Brown's Longhorns have their early season blowouts of non-conference and Big XII teams like going for them, so look for them to be #1 if they win out. However, consider the x-factor: the Big XII championship game has displayed a tendency to wreck a team's chances in the BCS poll in recent history. They'll probably face Missouri or Colorado, both of which are good, but will be summarily dispatched. So if all goes according to plan, count on the BCS favoring UT. And here's where it gets interesting.
#3 Virginia Tech, in terms of strength of schedule, has its work cut out for it - and has the most to gain. Should Frank Beamer run the table and finish the season with an unblemished record, the Hokies would have beaten Boston College and Miami - both assumedly ranked in the top 15 at the time they lock-up, and both of whom they play in Blacksburg. I'm also projecting a VT/Florida State ACC championship, to be held at a neutral site, which should make for a great game any way you slice it. VT started the season by obliterating the opposition by an average of 30 points (including a pair of 45-0 shutouts of Duke and Ohio). The only ranked opponent they beat was Georgia Tech (at the time #15), who they handled 51-7. So while they took care of business against lesser teams early, they'll step it up against ranked opponents later on in the season, which the BCS also factors. Were it not for Vince Young in Austin, we'd all be talking about Marcus Vick.
So even though 99.9997% of America's sportswriters (myself included) would have the Trojans face the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl, the BCS, based on its programming model considering schedule strength and margin of victory, may likely rank Texas #1, followed by Virginia Tech and then USC. This would mean, if we did truly have a 1 vs. 2 national championship game - which was the whole damn point of the BCS' inception anyway - we'd see Hokies and 'Horns.
It'll still make for a great game...albeit not the one many of us want to see.
posted by Jason Salas @ 8:58 AM
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